Lok Sabha Election 2019 Updates, Results Live

Lok Sabha Election 2019 Updates, Results Live

Four Possible Scenarios

1) BJP single Largest(Maybe)

2) INC+ forms the govt. (Likely)

3) BJP + forms the Govt. (Likely)

4) INC Single Largest(Maybe)

➡ In a democracy, the electoral performance also depends on how many and how powerful, opposition parties enter the fight. As of now, BJP is the only dominant political party in the country. The Congress party in 2014, was ruling in 13 States but from thereon it collapsed like pack of cards and is holding on to only four states. Looking at the performance of Congress with 80 seats in Gujrat, it looks like that the revival of the Congress has begun. ( From 1995 to 2017, the Congress has doubled their seats in Gujrat).The recent elections at Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and MP show that Congress is gaining better.

➡ The BJP always endeavours to capture all seats alone and there is nothing wrong in such resolve as every political party aims at such target but it must be kept in mind that BJP even though won 282 seats in 2014, it fought that election as NDA coalition’s lead partner and not alone. Therefore it also depends as to how the coalition partners perform. The party supporting the coalition may not support in 2019 if the performance of BJP is not up to mark in 2018. The NCP in Maharashtra before Gujrat elections was talking of supporting the BJP if Shivsena pulls out of government but now after the Gujrat elections it is praising Congress and talking about a reunion. The parties follow public opinions that rapidly changes as we saw in Gujrat.

➡ The performance also depends on the ability of parties in political marketing. One of the dominant factors contributed to the victory of NDA in 2014, was the event management abilities. Congress appears to have matched the vacuum created by their absence on social media.

➡ I remember a famous one-line statement of Ex-PM Dr Manmohan Singh. In 2014, the Congress lost power due to the scams. The 2G scam was one of them. The humble ex-PM said, “ we lost in the battle of perception”. Now that with the Court ruling that there was no 2G scam, I wonder at his marvellous vision.

➡ 2019, elections will not be fought on the basis of economic performance, jobs or growth in personal income but again on perceptions.

➡ NDA will marginally fall short of a majority but form government: CVoter survey (10 March 10, 2019 )

The poll projected that the NDA would bag 264 seats, while the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress is expected to bag 141 seats, and all other parties are expected to bag 138 seats. If there is no “Mahagathbandhan” in Uttar Pradesh, there will be 307 seats for the NDA and 139 for the UPA and 97 for all other parties. The BJP is expected to have 220 seats on its own in terms of seats, and the allies are likely to have 44.

TIMES OF INDIA (11 March, 2019 )

➡ Airstrike against Pakistan boosted Modi’s strong image. BJP can pit “national” issues such as 7% growth, tax reforms, welfare schemes, and handling of difficult neighbours

Regional parties like TMC, SP, BSP, DMK and YSRCP are seen to be strong on their respective home turfs and pose a stronger challenge to BJP than Congress in several states

➡ Lol Sabha Poll Date Schedule

Lok Sabha polls will take place from April 11 to May 19 in seven phases. On May 23, the results will be announced.

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